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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 85

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(12:01) 5-T.Townsend punts 48 yards to MIA 37, Center-41-J.Winchester. 0-B.Berrios to MIA 44 for 7 yards (54-L.Chenal, 44-Ca.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.42 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 85, worth -4.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 43, worth -1.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model