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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 6

New York Jets 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 27

What Actually Happened

(:34) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short middle to 83-T.Conklin to LAC 2 for 4 yards (31-N.Niemann; 20-D.Marlowe).

The Three Options

GO +2.31 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.74 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 6, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +2.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.18 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.40 EP