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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 20

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(9:22) 11-C.Dicker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.99 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 20, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 30, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model