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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 16 at the 45

New York Jets 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(2:42) 5-T.Morstead punts 33 yards to LAC 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.04 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model