Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 77

New York Jets 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

(:28) 5-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to LAC 25, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-D.Davis pushed ob at LAC 42 for 17 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.55 EP
58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 77, worth -3.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model