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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 19 at the 67

New York Jets 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 5-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to LAC 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.70 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model