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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 29

New York Jets 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(6:01) 9-G.Zuerlein 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.39 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model