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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 74

New York Jets 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(10:41) 5-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to LAC 25, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.70 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model