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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 15 at the 52

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(13:01) 16-J.Scott punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.40 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 52, worth -3.03 EP
KICK -1.71 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model