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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 73

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(14:16) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to NYJ 24, Center-47-J.Harris. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 24 for no gain (33-D.Leonard; 36-J.Taylor).

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 73, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 31, worth -2.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model