4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 55

Indianapolis Colts 27 – Carolina Panthers 13

What Actually Happened

(3:31) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to CAR 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 11-I.Smith-Marsette.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +0.93 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP