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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 75

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:20) 8-R.Sanchez punts 56 yards to CAR 19, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-I.Smith-Marsette to CAR 29 for 10 yards (81-M.Alie-Cox; 46-L.Rhodes). PENALTY on CAR-32-D.Bootle, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at CAR 19.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.58 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.11 EP