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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 16 at the 76

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(12:40) 8-R.Sanchez punts 61 yards to CAR 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-I.Smith-Marsette ran ob at CAR 23 for 8 yards (83-K.Granson).

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.05 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model