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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 17

Carolina Panthers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(3:39) 4-E.Pineiro 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.27 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 17, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 27, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model