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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 66

Carolina Panthers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(13:07) 10-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to IND 16, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 6-I.McKenzie.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.26 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 66, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 24, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP