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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 7

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:55) 7-M.Gay 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.67 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 7, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model