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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 56

New Orleans Saints 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(9:35) 39-L.Hedley punts 42 yards to CHI 14, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.07 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 56, worth -2.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT +0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 17, worth +0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model