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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 29

New Orleans Saints 24 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(2:30) 19-B.Grupe 47 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +1.82 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 29, worth -1.97 EP
KICK +0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.09 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 39, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -1.10 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model