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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 39

New Orleans Saints 17 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 39-L.Hedley punts 30 yards to CHI 9, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.55 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 39, worth -2.01 EP
KICK +0.22 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 48, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP