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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 37

New Orleans Saints 14 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(11:48) 19-B.Grupe 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.18 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 37, worth -1.87 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model