4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 71

New Orleans Saints 14 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(13:51) 39-L.Hedley punts 48 yards to CHI 23, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.76 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 71, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 29, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP