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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 37

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(2:21) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 89-D.Sample to BUF 35 for 2 yards (25-T.Dodson, 23-M.Hyde).

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.84 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 37, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model