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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 86

Buffalo Bills 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 8-S.Martin punts 44 yards to CIN 42, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 16-T.Irwin.

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.16 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 86, worth -5.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 44, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model