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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 16

Buffalo Bills 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(10:25) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.38 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 16, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model