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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 20 at the 42

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(5:44) 10-B.Robbins punts 33 yards to BUF 9, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.43 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 42, worth -1.79 EP
KICK -0.02 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model