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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 48

Cincinnati Bengals 14 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(9:13) 10-B.Robbins punts 36 yards to BUF 12, Center-48-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.08 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 48, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP