Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 14 at the 67

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

(2:12) 12-B.Gillikin punts 56 yards to CLE 11, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-J.Proche to CLE 28 for 17 yards (26-B.Price; 51-K.Barnes).

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.49 EP
72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 67, worth -3.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model