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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 59

Cleveland Browns 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to ARI 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 19 for 4 yards (20-P.Strong).

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.73 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 59, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 18, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model