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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 66

Cleveland Browns 27 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to ARI 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 83-G.Dortch ran ob at ARI 29 for 7 yards (88-H.Bryant).

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +0.53 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 66, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 24, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model