Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 75

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Cleveland Browns 27

(3:58) 12-B.Gillikin punts 43 yards to CLE 32, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.96 EP
73% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 75, worth -2.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model