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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 67

Cleveland Browns 27 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(6:31) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +0.89 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 67, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -2.03 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 25, worth -2.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model