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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 50

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(10:07) (Shotgun) 15-C.Tune pass short right to 85-T.McBride to CLE 44 for 6 yards (22-G.Delpit).

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.37 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 50, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.36 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model