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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 92

Cleveland Browns 20 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 65 yards to ARI 27, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 83-G.Dortch to 50 for 23 yards (28-M.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.45 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 92, worth -5.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 50, worth -2.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model