Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 61

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Cleveland Browns 20

(5:50) 12-B.Gillikin punts 57 yards to CLE 4, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-44-O.Pappoe.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.65 EP
68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 61, worth -3.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model