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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 99

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(12:39) 12-B.Gillikin punts 55 yards to CLE 44, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-J.Proche to ARI 40 for 16 yards (45-D.Gardeck). PENALTY on CLE-25-K.Hailassie, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 44.

The Three Options

GO -4.11 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.08 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 99, worth -6.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

PUNT -3.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 53, worth -3.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model