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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 70

Cleveland Browns 10 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(3:39) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 60 yards to ARI 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 24 for 14 yards (26-R.McLeod).

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.87 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 70, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 28, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model