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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 33

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 4-J.Elliott 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.05 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 33, worth -2.08 EP
KICK +0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 43, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model