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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 75

Washington Commanders 24 – Philadelphia Eagles 31

What Actually Happened

(2:18) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell sacked at WAS 17 for -8 yards (7-H.Reddick). FUMBLES (7-H.Reddick) [7-H.Reddick], recovered by WAS-71-A.Wylie at WAS 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.31 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 75, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 32, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model