Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 59

Philadelphia Eagles 31 – Washington Commanders 24

(3:18) 10-B.Mann punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-45-R.Lovato, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.02 EP
63% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 59, worth -2.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model