Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 80

Washington Commanders 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

(8:00) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to PHI 24, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 18-B.Covey to PHI 49 for 25 yards (20-J.Martin, 47-K.Hudson).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.43 EP
63% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 80, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model