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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 35

Washington Commanders 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(1:51) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin (24-J.Bradberry).

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.64 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 35, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 45, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model