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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 51

New York Jets 0 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(3:12) 5-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to NYG 2, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-44-J.Sherwood.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.89 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 51, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.72 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model