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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 67

New York Jets 0 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(6:21) 5-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to NYG 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.14 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 67, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 25, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP