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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 17

New York Giants 10 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(:28) 9-G.Gano 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +1.59 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 17, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +2.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.76 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 27, worth -0.27 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model