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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 74

New York Jets 0 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(10:29) 5-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to NYG 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 37 for 9 yards (55-C.Surratt, 42-T.Hennessy).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.97 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 74, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 32, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model