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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 46

New York Jets 7 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 5-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to NYG 3, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.37 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 13, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model