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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 68

New York Jets 7 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(6:34) 5-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to NYG 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NYG 34 for 11 yards (44-J.Sherwood; 89-J.Ruckert).

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.71 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 68, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 26, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model