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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 54

New York Giants 3 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(:08) 6-J.Gillan punts 42 yards to NYJ 12, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-44-N.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +1.47 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 54, worth -1.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 16, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model