Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 14 at the 45

New York Giants 3 – New York Jets 7

(1:17) 6-J.Gillan punts 35 yards to NYJ 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 4-D.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.62 EP
75% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -1.89 EP

KICK -0.31 EP

43% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
57% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.23 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model