4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 65

New York Giants 3 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(2:34) 6-J.Gillan punts 23 yards to NYJ 42, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.78 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 65, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 23, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP